We launched 11 months ago with a simple goal: to become a one-shop website for finding new music daily. We saw ourselves as a Radio-DJ-meets-Tour Guide: a human voice to guide you to what’s new AND
good across the web. It's what we've aspired to be for you, and for the thousands of
others who have come to our site in the year-to-date.
We’ve learned many things in 11 months, but in true iHearditOn.com fashion, we’re going to highlight five lessons:
Lesson #1: There is no one dominant format when discovering new music online - music we’ve found or received has been either videos, mp3s, and streams.
This seems obvious, but even a year later, there are no detectable trends as to which format will win out. Because a new song may be found simultaneously on MySpace, YouTube, and on a music blog, there may not ever be any winners from this battle except for the sites that will be able to aggregate all three seamlessly.
Lesson #2: A new music discovery experience that is not optimal for the consumer may be optimal for an artist seeking buzz or exposure.
Often we discovered mp3s, and within days they disappeared. We also discovered music videos which didn't disappear for weeks or months, but the mp3 would not be available. In both cases, the artist's logic was simple: a free taste of a song can drive viral buzz (drug dealer/software model), and build future demand for an imminent commercial release. But people want to download new music they discover and like immediately, and the difficulty in finding or downloading mp3s (e.g., zShare) interferes with the joy of discovery. This is a problem in the new music discovery experience where we see an opportunity to help you in 2010.
Lesson #3: iTunes and Amazon are the final destinations for music content for many users, but iTunes and Amazon are not the final destination for a surprising amount of new music.
We’re surprised, but not stunned, by this lesson - some of our content this year were free EPs or live recordings. Ant and Greg recently published playlists (see above right) of their picks from the Fall, and less than 50% of their Top 5s from August/September/October could be found on iTunes three months later. The implication, then, is there's an entire universe of music unavailable for purchase, and artists and labels are missing a huge opportunity in building a market here. It is here where we have staked our ground, and see exciting opportunities to improve and expand on our services to date.
Lesson #4: In this universe, artists and indie labels need music bloggers for word of mouth buzz, and music bloggers need free content for their audiences.
There’s a symbiotic relationship here that is only going to further evolve. This means, there is an entire universe of (legal) music beyond iTunes,
Spotify, YouTube, and MySpace. The question we will address in 2010 is whether and/or how blogs will begin to compete for source content. We're already seeing redundancy in content between some blogs.
Lesson #5: We're keeping an eye on video, because there’s a very interesting future for the music video online.
Music videos evolved in eye-opening ways in 2009, and we think they will only continue to evolve more. John Mayer’s augmented reality video, Children Collide (a very cool 360 degree interactive video no longer available), and Cold War Kids all challenged their viewers to interact with music differently. We loved these videos, and there will be more like them in 2010.
Predictions
We're going use these top five lessons provide a background for some brave predictions for 2010:
- There will be no “winners” for new business models in the music industry because there is no one dominant format for music, Web 2.0 tools don’t favor one format, bloggers don't favor one format, advertisers don't favor one format (though lean towards video and search more...), and the labels have no business rationale (yet) to favor one format over the other.
- Copyright law does not favor a particular format over the others, and will not anytime soon. 2009 was a year where copyright law evolved in the Courts, but the ultimate decision for copyright law will be in Congress, and they have other, more important priorities right now.
- For this reason (and others), the music industry’s traditional business model will still continue to suffer. Piracy will continue to exist and evolve, CD sales will continue to decline, and other formats will be viable alternatives.
- New business models will emerge on the web. For example, we predict you will see models built upon interactivity with content and advertising around that content.
- Pandora will further take over the territory of traditional radio. With over 40M+ monthly users already, it simply provides a better service across multiple platforms than many (but not all) radio DJs may. However, it will begin to compete more with algorithmic aggregators like The Hype Machine, MOG, and We Are Hunted.
- Vevo looks like it is positioned to fundamentally change how music videos are consumed online, both in terms of the business model, and the way that video content is actually consumed.
- Last, mobile music consumption will expand this year, but won't provide any new solutions. The
arrival of Spotify has brought the mp3 vs. streaming vs. video battle
to the iPhone and other mobile devices, where Spotify now competes with YouTube
and iTunes. This will further reduce the likelihood of the music
industry finding a new business model in 2010.
The picture we’ve painted above seems chaotic, and that’s because, yes, the music industry is that chaotic.
But it’s in this storm that we see an opportunity, and are confident in the position we've taken. With these lessons and opportunities in mind, we’re going to expand upon and improve our service to you in 2010.
Thank you for helping to make a dream become a reality, and to making 2009 such an extraordinary year! We look forward to seeing you, daily, in 2010!
